“If you owe
the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the
bank's problem” the famous quotation from JP Getty neatly sums up the dilemma
faced by the international community in dealing with the Greek debt problem.
The fact is
the international community will have to learn to accommodate the spectre of
countries failing to grapple effectively with their debt burdens. In turn this
will inhibit growth and limit the speed and strength of global economic
recovery.
If Greece does not repay its creditors, a dangerous precedent will have
been set. This will make investors increasingly nervous about the likelihood of
other highly-indebted nations, such as Italy, or those with weak economies,
such as Spain, repaying their debts. If investors stop buying bonds issued by
other governments, then those governments in turn will not be able to repay
their creditors - a potentially disastrous vicious circle.
To combat this risk, European leaders have agreed a 700bn-euro firewall
to protect the rest of the Eurozone from a full-blown Greek default.
Equally, if banks that are already struggling to find enough capital are
forced to write off money over and above that which they have already agreed
to, they will become weaker still, undermining confidence in the entire global
banking system. Banks would then be even more reluctant, and less able, to lend
to one another, potentially sparking a second credit crunch, where bank lending
effectively dries up.
For example, Greece owes French banks $38bn, German banks $5.5bn, UK
banks $8.2bn and US banks $3.5bn.
It will be
an uncertain time but one undisputable outcome of the above will be the hard
ball attitude of the Banks towards companies seeking funding. It will become
ever more necessary to demonstrate effective control over all areas of cost and
exposure as the banks will undoubtedly remain reluctant lenders.
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