Thursday, 23 August 2012

Greek crisis lurches on


 “If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem” the famous quotation from JP Getty neatly sums up the dilemma faced by the international community in dealing with the Greek debt problem.

The fact is the international community will have to learn to accommodate the spectre of countries failing to grapple effectively with their debt burdens. In turn this will inhibit growth and limit the speed and strength of global economic recovery.

If Greece does not repay its creditors, a dangerous precedent will have been set. This will make investors increasingly nervous about the likelihood of other highly-indebted nations, such as Italy, or those with weak economies, such as Spain, repaying their debts. If investors stop buying bonds issued by other governments, then those governments in turn will not be able to repay their creditors - a potentially disastrous vicious circle.

To combat this risk, European leaders have agreed a 700bn-euro firewall to protect the rest of the Eurozone from a full-blown Greek default.

Equally, if banks that are already struggling to find enough capital are forced to write off money over and above that which they have already agreed to, they will become weaker still, undermining confidence in the entire global banking system. Banks would then be even more reluctant, and less able, to lend to one another, potentially sparking a second credit crunch, where bank lending effectively dries up.

For example, Greece owes French banks $38bn, German banks $5.5bn, UK banks $8.2bn and US banks $3.5bn.

It will be an uncertain time but one undisputable outcome of the above will be the hard ball attitude of the Banks towards companies seeking funding. It will become ever more necessary to demonstrate effective control over all areas of cost and exposure as the banks will undoubtedly remain reluctant lenders.

 

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment